It’s been six months since cannabis was legalized in Canada and although the trending sales are stagnant at the moment, due to lack of production and high costs of sales, the industry – and the country at large – are banking on big sales and growth in the next 3 years.
Current estimations have the cannabis industry actually producing less profit than originally thought; however, make no mistake, we’re still talking about billions of dollars in revenue and profit for the country.
What many thought would be a big bang launch in October 2018 turned out to fall short, mainly because of a product shortage. People were so eager to get their hands on legal cannabis that the production was unable to keep up and some stores sold out immediately.
Estimates have been as high as 8 billion dollars at points, but it’s difficult to say for sure because of the lack of data for other countries who have legalized cannabis use. Of course, these estimates also include supplementary products such as bongs, weed pipes, cutters, and more. The reach of the industry is difficult to estimate because auxiliary products are also far reaching.
Now that Canada has some experience under its belt with producing and selling cannabis, there is hard data to support the new estimates of five billion dollars by 2021. With so much hype in the beginning, it was anyone’s best guess as to how big this industry could get. Now that the initial excitement has worn off and there are regular buying patterns emerging, data crunchers can see just what’s going on and determine more realistic future value of the industry.
Despite the small estimations of five billion dollars, there’s really no telling what will happen in the coming years. Much of the estimations are made on past performance, but a break in the economy, or an increase may pump more or less money into the industry. What we do know is that even when times are tough, people do tend to squirrel away some money for their habits, such as cigarettes and alcohol. Perhaps even more so when time are tough, which is a bi-product of struggling economies.
Other research data is putting Canada’s cannabis industry closer to ten billion dollars as 2025 approaches. It’s not a far cry from where experts estimate the country will land in 2021, and if you consider that many of the teenagers who weren’t legally allowed to buy cannabis when it was legalized will be coming of age during these years, sales may increase even more.
One of the reasons for the decline in interest, according to some experts, is that many people are continuing to buy cannabis products illegally – which is ironic because it’s no longer illegal, but some people prefer their original source of product acquisition.
As for medical marijuana, the industry seems to also be feeling the effects of cannabis legalization in Canada. Before, medical marijuana was the only way to get public access to cannabis products without fear or prosecution. Now that it’s is available publically, some people don’t want to deal with the hassle of having to get a prescription from their doctor, go to the pharmacy, and wait in line when they can just go to the local cannabis shop and buy it off the shelf.
As with most things, only time will tell how big the cannabis industry will get. And of course, the threat of a bubble effect is always looming. Legalizing cannabis was a control tactic put in place by the Canadian government in order to reduce the risk of people buying it illegally and to have better control over the quality and quantity that is available on the street. Still a relatively young country in the world with a relatively young prime minister, the young cannabis industry is just one more thing the country will have to grow up with together. So whether you are a fan of cannabis or not, it’s in the country to stay and it’s only expected to become more prevalent in the coming years.
