Younger Voter Turnout Critical For CA Prop 19
Joe | Aug 05, 2010 | Comments 4
I came across this great article today analyzing the impact younger voter turnout could have on California Proposition 19 and its passage. Not surprisingly, the higher the youth voter turnout, the better Prop 19 is expected to do.
In the last midterm election, voters age 33 or younger made up only 13.6 percent of the electorate, yet in the 2008 presidential contest, the same group made up over 23 percent of the vote. That is a substantial increase in the relative number of young people voting—a level of youth turnout that could mean the difference between the success or failure of Prop 19.
Let’s assume having Prop 19 on the ballot does motivate younger people to turn out so they make up relatively the same amount of the electorate in 2010 as they did in 2008. That could result in roughly a 1 to 2.5 percent increase for “yes on 19” and a corresponding decrease for “no.”
In a vote that is supposed to be close, a 2% to 5% swing could be the final push Prop 19 will need to get over the hump. But 2008 was a Presidential year, which means turnout this year is expected to fall back to 2006 levels. Which means it is up to us, the marijuana activists. We have to drive the masses to the polls, and the best way to do that is spread the message of truth, about marijuana legalization in general, and Prop 19 in particular.
This is the stretch run; we now have less than 3 months to spread the word of reform before the vote on CA Prop 19.