CA Prop 19 Does Better In Automated Polls
Joe | Jul 29, 2010 | Comments 1
We’ve been reporting poll results on CA Proposition 19 here on The 420 Times for the last few weeks, and there has been quite a disparity in the numbers. The website fivethirtyeight.com may have an answer as to why.
In three automated polls, Prop 19 wins by 10-16%, while it trails slightly in three “human-operator” calls. The biggest difference is among minorities, whose favor-ability rises considerably in the automated polls.
There are a couple of reasons why these discrepancies might have arisen. One might be that the automated surveys are having difficulty getting a representative sample of minorities. Automated surveys generally have lower response rates, and that impact may be most felt among minorities, who are usually harder to get on the phone.
Another reason could be that people are more likely to admit to favoring Prop 19 if they are dealing with an automated message as opposed to a real person, since marijuana is still so stigmatized in our society. This is especially true of minorities, who receive the bulk of arrests for cannabis “crimes.”
The good news is that the true measure of CA voters lies somewhere in the middle of the six polls. If so, Prop 19 proponents should have a lead of 5+%. As I’ve said before, polls are notoriously tricky (as evidenced by the fact that we had no President Gore or President Kerry). But as my dad always says about sports events, I’d rather be ahead right now than behind.
Filed Under: Activism • Exclusive Web Content • Politics
BRADLEY EFFECT! BRADLEY EFFECT! Who’s gonna answer yes, when you REALLY don’t know who’s asking? People see it as a potentially dangerous position to take publicly.